I've put it off and put it off as long as I could. I've remained very quiet about it. The time has come to break my silence. I am about to weigh in on the most controversial, most talked about subject in motorsports. And if you believe that, I've got some beach property in Tennessee I'll sell you real cheap.
Everytime I've tuned in to watch a race this year, I keep hearing about Danika Patrick. I hear about how she's great for the sport of Nascar. I hear about how people don't like her because she's a woman. I hear about how she's getting unfair criticism because she's a woman. I hear about how she's a woman. Right now I'd like to ask a question that's been bothering me for quite some time:
What criticism? What controversy? I haven't actually heard any that wasn't media manufactured.
I've scoured the Internet (OK, I looked for like five minutes, but five minutes is scouring, right?) and have only found a handful of sports writers openly criticizing her, but it wasn't because she was a woman. Here's one: Queen For A Day. The criticism here wasn't even about her but about the state of affairs at Indy, and while that may or may not be a valid point (I haven't paid attention to Indy in some years) it spoke nothing of Danika except to say she is a talented driver.
I did find one driver toss out some criticism about her being a woman. Robby Gordon claimed he wouldn't return to Indy because Danika has an unfair advantage as a woman because her car is lighter. Danika weighs in at about 100 pounds whereas Robby comes in at about 180. Of course given Robby's driving ability I've fairly certain he wouldn't be a match for Danika if he weighed 80 pounds. I wonder if he would complain if Mark Martin (135lbs) decided to race in the Indy 500? Aside from Robby Gordon's idiotic whining I haven't seen any actual disparaging remarks about Danika being a female driver.
Here's another comment I've been hearing: Danika's just a PR move for Nascar. Yeah, so? Nascar has been openly trying to find a talented female driver for years, it's a valid point but it doesn't take away from her talent. Part of the issue I think comes from the fact Danika is the first female driver to really get the support of Nascar.
Sara Christian was actually the first female driver in Nascar history, back in 1949 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. She qualified 13th. Her second race was at the Daytona road course that year and the 28 car field included two other women, Ethel Mobley and Louise Smith. As a side note, Christian's husband, Frank also ran in that race. Christian's fourth race was at Langhorne Speedway where she finished sixth. Mobley and Smith also competed in that race.
1977 again saw three women in the same race, Janet Guthrie, Lella Lombardi, and Christine Beckers. Guthrie, a former aerospace engineer, was actually the first woman to qualify and compete in both the Indy 500 and the Daytona 500. She finished 15th at the World 600, now the Coca-Cola 600, at Charlotte. In her first Daytona 500, she finished 12th on six cylinders after blowing an engine ten laps to go. Not bad for any driver. Oddly enough, one of the old criticisms about female drivers (by old I mean back in the early 70's when Guthrie first competed) was that women are too emotional for Nascar. I haven't actually heard that comment from anyone but the feminists who like to throw it up as men just being derogatory. Guthrie actually commented, not on the subject of "female emotions" but on drivers in general, "What I'm trying to emphasize is that a driver is primarily a person, not a man or a woman, and a great deal of driving is mental. You can not afford to get angry behind the wheel. A good driver needs emotional detachment, concentration , good judgment, and desire."
With the possible exception of The Intimidator himself Dale Earnhardt, Guthrie might actually be the only driver in Nascar history to exhibit those qualities (I'm looking at you Robby Gordon) .
None of those drivers attempted a complete Nascar season, nor, in my opinion, did they have the support of Nascar. Back in the days of Christian and Guthrie a drivers team was still a big deal, but it didn't make half the difference it does now. In order to make it in Nascar today, regardless of skill, you have to have money and the right builders and crew. The last female driver that sticks out in my mind was Shawna Robinson who often would race unsponsored. I think that had less to do with her being a woman and more to do with her just not being the best driver or spokesperson. Yes, she had some talent. She actually finished sixth in Arca series points, but in all honesty, that doesn't say much. Many, many drivers have preformed well at the lower levels and just couldn't cut it in Winston Cup. It's like a hotshot AAA ball pitcher getting shelled in the Majors.
That's going to come into play with Danika. We know she's a pretty good driver, we know she's got a decent car and backing. My only worry isn't that as a woman she's going to get emotional and start wrecking people. It's the fact that she is a little too high strung. She makes Rusty Wallace look like he's taking queludes. If she can calm down and just listen to her crew chief I think she's going to be alright. At the moment, all indications are that she will. She knows there's a big difference between Indy and Nascar and she knows that she doesn't know that much about the sport (relatively). Because of this she is probably more likely than any other driver on the track to actually listen to her crew chief. It's simply going to come down to her being "good enough."
Ok, so now that I've got the criticism about her being a woman cleared up (there is none), how about all this crap I hear about a woman driver being great for the sport. Why? How is having a female driver so wonderful? What does it actually do for the sport? The demographics I dug up show that Nascar fans are about 60% male and (obviously) 40% female. I suppose the belief is that a woman driver will attract more women fans, so congratulations Feminism, you're "great for the sport" ploy is nothing but a Nascar play for your pocketbooks. On that note, it will probably work.
Time for some business 101: Yes, Danika's been selling merchandise hand over fist, but so do all new drivers that are heavily backed by the media. She's new which means fans can't wear the same Danika Patrick shit (that was actually a typo, I meant to type shirt, but it has the same effect either way) they bought two years ago. There will be a noticeable drop off in sales in about three years, assuming this madness continues. Who will buy this merchandise? That 40% of women. That's actually pretty good because you can figure where all the male drivers are competing for 100% of the market, Danika has cornered 40% by herself. Nearly all women will want a Danika Patrick shirt. As for the other 60%? Well, let's just say I don't see myself in a bar sitting next to a guy in a Danika hat shouting "Patrick!" like Freebird.
Ok, so there is money involved. Is that how we define "great for the sport?" It doesn't grow the fan base, it merely grabs an untapped marketing potential of the current fans. Some how I'm not expecting hundreds of thousands of women to come flocking to the sport just because there is a woman driver. The only thing Nascar gets out of this that is "great for the sport" is media attention. With any luck somebody will tune in to see this woman driver everybody is talking about and decide "hey, this is a pretty cool sport." I hope that happens, because hey, it is a pretty cool sport.
Saturday, March 6, 2010
Friday, March 5, 2010
Goodbye Jake
Apparently I am officially a blog to be reckoned with. I received my first spam comment today and, ironically, it was for a gambling site. I wonder what that says about my blog?
I am wrestling with a topic this week and it's entirely my fault. I had intended to break my silence about Danica Patrick this week but because I didn't bother to check the schedule I only now realized the Nationwide series (Busch to you fellow hold outs) has the week off. It just doesn't seem timely to talk about her yet. I have been putting it off for as long as possible, both because I think there has been too much media coverage of her already and because what I have to say on the matter will likely go against conventional opinion. In fact, I'm probably going to at least slightly miff some people, no matter what their opinion of her. I'll talk about her next week. That's what we call a tease by the way.
So, Danika's out, what to talk about? How about the Panthers, my home state's struggling football team. Today general manager Marty Hurney made an announcement we have seen coming for a long time. The Carolina Panthers have released Jake Delhomme. I have been calling for the Panthers to drop Delhomme as their starter for several years now, regardless of his being the only QB to lead them to a Super Bowl. I like Jake. He's a great guy, he's given everything he's got to the Panthers and on the whole he had served them well, but he has never been more than an average quarterback. After last years disastrous season with Jake's career high 18 interceptions, 23 of which were in his last 12 games, this was a move that has been a long time coming. That said, I think Carolina has made a dreadful mistake. Not in releasing Jake, but in the way they have done it.
The Panthers have remained steadfastly loyal to Delhomme over the years, even with naysayers like myself calling for at least dropping him to second string. Last year they extended his contract in a move that will now cost them quite a lot of money as they have to buy it out. In addition to this, they have also allowed Julius Peppers to go free agent, thus losing a large part of their bargaining power. By extending Jake's contract one year too many, the Panthers have passed on several very good QB's I think they probably could have signed. With all of this, what are they left with? Matt Moore.
Moore did an outstanding job this past season, stepping up and scoring a 61% completion percentage with 9 sacks. That's pretty good considering his situation, but I fear we have dropped one average quarterback for another average quarterback. Much of this can be chalked up to inexperience, and maybe the Panthers have seen something in him that makes them think he will turn in to something great. I actually am holding my breath.
I think there is another issue the Panthers need to consider in addition their QB situation. Jake had 23 sacks on 321 attempts last year. Matt had 9 sacks on 138 attempts. That suggests to me either their receivers aren't getting open, or the offensive line isn't giving them enough time. That's something coach Fox is going to have to look at very closely this coming season.
I have officially crossed the line. This post marks my movement into the realm of Monday Morning Quarterback territory. I am probably the least qualified person to be second guessing the Panthers coaching decisions, and I hope coach Fox, Jake, and Matt will all forgive my uninformed criticism, I'm merely voicing the opinion of a fan.
This is the first Jake Delhomme highlight reel I came across. I apologise for any issues with the audio, I actually selected this video on a computer with no sound, so I have no idea what is said or what the soundtrack might be.
I am wrestling with a topic this week and it's entirely my fault. I had intended to break my silence about Danica Patrick this week but because I didn't bother to check the schedule I only now realized the Nationwide series (Busch to you fellow hold outs) has the week off. It just doesn't seem timely to talk about her yet. I have been putting it off for as long as possible, both because I think there has been too much media coverage of her already and because what I have to say on the matter will likely go against conventional opinion. In fact, I'm probably going to at least slightly miff some people, no matter what their opinion of her. I'll talk about her next week. That's what we call a tease by the way.
So, Danika's out, what to talk about? How about the Panthers, my home state's struggling football team. Today general manager Marty Hurney made an announcement we have seen coming for a long time. The Carolina Panthers have released Jake Delhomme. I have been calling for the Panthers to drop Delhomme as their starter for several years now, regardless of his being the only QB to lead them to a Super Bowl. I like Jake. He's a great guy, he's given everything he's got to the Panthers and on the whole he had served them well, but he has never been more than an average quarterback. After last years disastrous season with Jake's career high 18 interceptions, 23 of which were in his last 12 games, this was a move that has been a long time coming. That said, I think Carolina has made a dreadful mistake. Not in releasing Jake, but in the way they have done it.
The Panthers have remained steadfastly loyal to Delhomme over the years, even with naysayers like myself calling for at least dropping him to second string. Last year they extended his contract in a move that will now cost them quite a lot of money as they have to buy it out. In addition to this, they have also allowed Julius Peppers to go free agent, thus losing a large part of their bargaining power. By extending Jake's contract one year too many, the Panthers have passed on several very good QB's I think they probably could have signed. With all of this, what are they left with? Matt Moore.
Moore did an outstanding job this past season, stepping up and scoring a 61% completion percentage with 9 sacks. That's pretty good considering his situation, but I fear we have dropped one average quarterback for another average quarterback. Much of this can be chalked up to inexperience, and maybe the Panthers have seen something in him that makes them think he will turn in to something great. I actually am holding my breath.
I think there is another issue the Panthers need to consider in addition their QB situation. Jake had 23 sacks on 321 attempts last year. Matt had 9 sacks on 138 attempts. That suggests to me either their receivers aren't getting open, or the offensive line isn't giving them enough time. That's something coach Fox is going to have to look at very closely this coming season.
I have officially crossed the line. This post marks my movement into the realm of Monday Morning Quarterback territory. I am probably the least qualified person to be second guessing the Panthers coaching decisions, and I hope coach Fox, Jake, and Matt will all forgive my uninformed criticism, I'm merely voicing the opinion of a fan.
This is the first Jake Delhomme highlight reel I came across. I apologise for any issues with the audio, I actually selected this video on a computer with no sound, so I have no idea what is said or what the soundtrack might be.
Saturday, February 27, 2010
I warned you, my mind tends to wander
This has gotten out of hand. I knew it would, I've never done anything halfway. Ok, sure I'll occasionaly start something and quit, but that's different. I usualy quit to avoid doing it halfway. I'll explain more in a minute. First off, did you hear about Patrick Beckert, the German speed skater? He missed his chance at the Oylmpics this year because his cell phone was turned off.
Yep, aparently he was the fourth alternate in 1,000m. Two time gold winner Enrico Fabris, from Italy, withdrew an hour before the race and Olympic officials couldn't reach the first three on the list. The Germans heard about it and started searching for Beckert. They called him and they called his sister, a contender in the 3,000m race trying to find him, but still no Beckert. 17 minutes before the race Beckert finaly called back but couldn't get to the track in time. As it turns out, Beckert's cell phone was turned off.
So, how does this relate to my own situation? I managed to lose my own cell phone Wednesday night in what could probablybe turned into a highly stupid low budget version of "Dude, Where's My Car." Happily my cell phone insurance came through and I recieved my new phone today, Friday. I'm actualy kind of happy because I've spent the entire day playing with it and coming up with ring tones.
Ring tones, as it turns out, are a great way to spend an entire night. After all, I can't have just any ring tone, it has to be just the right one. Something slightly subversive and just the right amount of annoying to the people around me without being obscene. I started by looking through my "Cracker" albums and thought I had settled on "Don't Fuck Me Up With Peace And Love" but figured that wouldn't be the best thing to start ringing in church or while I'm on the air. After that I thought, how about Teen Angst, but then I got creative. Some quick checking on Groove Shark and I hit gold. I have managed to put the most politicaly conservative songs I could find on my phone. That of course lead me creating a CD of these songs, and I now think I may have the greatest mixtape ever created. I'm not talking some cliche cd full of mindless Toby Keith drivel, I'm talking real recording gold.
My new ringtones? Well to kick it off, I've got everybody's favorite conservative the motor city madman Ted Nugent with Damn Yankees recording "Don't Tread On Me." After that, "Government Cheese" by The Rainmakers, then of course I went with "Capitalism" by Oingo Boingo. Next I dug up "20th Century Man" by the Kinks. I think I've got it pretty well covered.
Yep, aparently he was the fourth alternate in 1,000m. Two time gold winner Enrico Fabris, from Italy, withdrew an hour before the race and Olympic officials couldn't reach the first three on the list. The Germans heard about it and started searching for Beckert. They called him and they called his sister, a contender in the 3,000m race trying to find him, but still no Beckert. 17 minutes before the race Beckert finaly called back but couldn't get to the track in time. As it turns out, Beckert's cell phone was turned off.
So, how does this relate to my own situation? I managed to lose my own cell phone Wednesday night in what could probablybe turned into a highly stupid low budget version of "Dude, Where's My Car." Happily my cell phone insurance came through and I recieved my new phone today, Friday. I'm actualy kind of happy because I've spent the entire day playing with it and coming up with ring tones.
Ring tones, as it turns out, are a great way to spend an entire night. After all, I can't have just any ring tone, it has to be just the right one. Something slightly subversive and just the right amount of annoying to the people around me without being obscene. I started by looking through my "Cracker" albums and thought I had settled on "Don't Fuck Me Up With Peace And Love" but figured that wouldn't be the best thing to start ringing in church or while I'm on the air. After that I thought, how about Teen Angst, but then I got creative. Some quick checking on Groove Shark and I hit gold. I have managed to put the most politicaly conservative songs I could find on my phone. That of course lead me creating a CD of these songs, and I now think I may have the greatest mixtape ever created. I'm not talking some cliche cd full of mindless Toby Keith drivel, I'm talking real recording gold.
My new ringtones? Well to kick it off, I've got everybody's favorite conservative the motor city madman Ted Nugent with Damn Yankees recording "Don't Tread On Me." After that, "Government Cheese" by The Rainmakers, then of course I went with "Capitalism" by Oingo Boingo. Next I dug up "20th Century Man" by the Kinks. I think I've got it pretty well covered.
Saturday, February 20, 2010
The Wicker Games
As I was watching the Men's Curling match the other day in the 2010 Olympics, I was struck with an odd realization. Actualy, three odd realizations. One was that my microwave pizza rolls were extreamly hot and I wouldn't be speaking coherently for several minutes, Two, I realized that I had no idea what was going on in this sport I was watching, and Three, apparently there are some strange things going on up in Canada this month.
As our rock slinging heros slid their stones down the ice, I noticed for the first time the Olympic emblem for these games and was uterly bewildered. I had seen this thing in other places through coverage and on the Olympic websites but for some reason I never really looked at it. If you haven't seen this thing, here's what I saw.
You see that multi colored man up there? Not the guy kneeling down, the one painted on the ice. My first thoughts on this thing made me fear for the lives of our competetors. I couldn't believe it.
"Holy crap! Why do they have a wicker man panted on the ice?" I thought as I scrambled for something cold to to drink to cash down the pizza roll that had just burned my mouth. "What kind of wierd ceremony are the planing for the close of these Olympics?"
Not seeing what I'm talking about? Try looking at it from this angle.
Still don't get it? Try this.
Aparently the giant rainbow wickerman is based on a traditional Inuit symbol and they have these things in various places throught the great white north. Seriously, I'm fearing for the lives of our Olympians. Maybe I'm reading to much into this, but if Nick Cage shows up in a bear suit, I hope Lindsey Vonn runs for her life.
As our rock slinging heros slid their stones down the ice, I noticed for the first time the Olympic emblem for these games and was uterly bewildered. I had seen this thing in other places through coverage and on the Olympic websites but for some reason I never really looked at it. If you haven't seen this thing, here's what I saw.
You see that multi colored man up there? Not the guy kneeling down, the one painted on the ice. My first thoughts on this thing made me fear for the lives of our competetors. I couldn't believe it.
"Holy crap! Why do they have a wicker man panted on the ice?" I thought as I scrambled for something cold to to drink to cash down the pizza roll that had just burned my mouth. "What kind of wierd ceremony are the planing for the close of these Olympics?"
Not seeing what I'm talking about? Try looking at it from this angle.
Still don't get it? Try this.
Aparently the giant rainbow wickerman is based on a traditional Inuit symbol and they have these things in various places throught the great white north. Seriously, I'm fearing for the lives of our Olympians. Maybe I'm reading to much into this, but if Nick Cage shows up in a bear suit, I hope Lindsey Vonn runs for her life.
Men's Curling; or What I Do When I Get Off My 9-5 Job
Unintentionally I seem to be paying attention to the weirder, lesser understood Olympic games. The Biathlon of course I already talked about and it's really no surprise it caught my attention. It involves people skiing around and shooting at stuff, who wouldn't want to watch that? The sport that's caught me by surprise this year though is the one I've made fun of for years, pulling out all sorts of references to cheese making, house cleaning, and general Canadian jokes. Admittedly I knew absolutely nothing about this sport, but to be honest, not knowing what I'm talking about has never stopped me before.
Curling. I've been asking myself for years how it could be considered an Olympic sport, this year I've come to a conclusion: if synchronized swimming is a sport, surely this ice thing is. Heck they're doing better than me by just not falling down. My attention was first drawn to the sport when the NBC anchorman announced they would be running a story that takes an in depth look at the US Curling team's training "and despite popular belief, it's more than just drinking beer and playing cards."
Holy crap, our curlers are apparently more infamous than Bode Miller. Unlike Bode, thankfully, I don't think our curlers have ever curled drunk. At least not in competition. They have taken a bit of flak I'm afraid for their losing record, but I think that's sort of the price to be paid when a nation competes in a sport most of its citizenry has never heard of. Think of our curlers as the Jamaican Bobsled team.
After I watched the story on our curlers, John Schuster, Jason Smith, Jeff Isaacson,John Benton, and Chris Plys, I discovered something. These are regular guys. Schuster, Smith, and Isaacson have been best friends for years, playing on the same curling team in Chisholm, Minnesota and even living together in Schuster's two bedroom apartment with his fiance. Schuster is a bartender and groundskeeper at a golf course, Isaacson is a teacher, Benton is an operating systems analyst. They like to drink beer and play poker in their down time. They are not your standard Olympic athletes, and I think I like that about them.
After finding out a little about the team I decided to watch a match and was somehow sucked in. I had absolutely no idea what I was watching, except that it resembled the strangest shuffleboard I have ever seen. I understood the gist of it, throw the stones down the ices, sweep in front of it to speed it up or slow it down, and try and get it as close to the center of the bulls eye as possible. Also, there seems to be some sort of shot clock involved and a blocking strategy I couldn't figure out. It was research time.
The game apparently originated in the early 1500's in Scotland. You may note another odd game that involves attempting to get a round object into a small target that was invented in Scotland just a few hundred years earlier. I suspect both sports involved a large amounts of scotch whisky, probably making Schuster and his bunch the most historically qualified team in Vancouver this year. The sport was first played competitively in the Olympics in 1998; I think that was my first actual exposure to this odd game. A curling match consists of ten "ends" with each team throwing sixteen stones per end. There is a 73 minute shot clock per team and each team gets two 60 second time outs. A team must get off all of their stones within the 73 minutes. The team with the stone closest the center of the "house", or target, gets the point.
This year the U.S. has gotten off to a rough start, both in men's and women's. At the time of this writing, the men have a record of 2-4, and actually replaced Schuster with their alternate, Plys, for one match. He returned for their most recent match and won 8 to 7. The women are currently 1-3.
If you'd like to take a closer look at your American Men's Curling team, check this out: The Everyman Olympians.
If you're still not interested in Curling, here's a bunny with a pancake on its head.
Curling. I've been asking myself for years how it could be considered an Olympic sport, this year I've come to a conclusion: if synchronized swimming is a sport, surely this ice thing is. Heck they're doing better than me by just not falling down. My attention was first drawn to the sport when the NBC anchorman announced they would be running a story that takes an in depth look at the US Curling team's training "and despite popular belief, it's more than just drinking beer and playing cards."
Holy crap, our curlers are apparently more infamous than Bode Miller. Unlike Bode, thankfully, I don't think our curlers have ever curled drunk. At least not in competition. They have taken a bit of flak I'm afraid for their losing record, but I think that's sort of the price to be paid when a nation competes in a sport most of its citizenry has never heard of. Think of our curlers as the Jamaican Bobsled team.
After I watched the story on our curlers, John Schuster, Jason Smith, Jeff Isaacson,John Benton, and Chris Plys, I discovered something. These are regular guys. Schuster, Smith, and Isaacson have been best friends for years, playing on the same curling team in Chisholm, Minnesota and even living together in Schuster's two bedroom apartment with his fiance. Schuster is a bartender and groundskeeper at a golf course, Isaacson is a teacher, Benton is an operating systems analyst. They like to drink beer and play poker in their down time. They are not your standard Olympic athletes, and I think I like that about them.
After finding out a little about the team I decided to watch a match and was somehow sucked in. I had absolutely no idea what I was watching, except that it resembled the strangest shuffleboard I have ever seen. I understood the gist of it, throw the stones down the ices, sweep in front of it to speed it up or slow it down, and try and get it as close to the center of the bulls eye as possible. Also, there seems to be some sort of shot clock involved and a blocking strategy I couldn't figure out. It was research time.
The game apparently originated in the early 1500's in Scotland. You may note another odd game that involves attempting to get a round object into a small target that was invented in Scotland just a few hundred years earlier. I suspect both sports involved a large amounts of scotch whisky, probably making Schuster and his bunch the most historically qualified team in Vancouver this year. The sport was first played competitively in the Olympics in 1998; I think that was my first actual exposure to this odd game. A curling match consists of ten "ends" with each team throwing sixteen stones per end. There is a 73 minute shot clock per team and each team gets two 60 second time outs. A team must get off all of their stones within the 73 minutes. The team with the stone closest the center of the "house", or target, gets the point.
This year the U.S. has gotten off to a rough start, both in men's and women's. At the time of this writing, the men have a record of 2-4, and actually replaced Schuster with their alternate, Plys, for one match. He returned for their most recent match and won 8 to 7. The women are currently 1-3.
If you'd like to take a closer look at your American Men's Curling team, check this out: The Everyman Olympians.
If you're still not interested in Curling, here's a bunny with a pancake on its head.
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Daytona 500: Who to watch and A Little History
Here we are, 7:26am, Sunday morning, February 14, 2010. Daytona 500 day. Many of us have waited months for this. Some of us are from Washington and are stupid. Most of us though are excited today because Nascar has made some changes to the cars and promises a little better racing; something more akin to the way it was when I was growing up. It should be a good race, but I never expect to see anything like the '79 finish where Donnie Allison and Cale Yarborough ended up in a fight in the infield while Richard Petty came in for the win. If you haven't seen it, check this out: The Fight.
As I mentioned before, we've already had some great racing leading up to today with the qualifying race, and I'm hoping to see it carried on throughout the season. Since I still haven't figured out the system for figuring out who starts where in the 500, I'm going to shamelessly steal from NASCAR.com. Here's the official starting line up for today's race:
So, who to watch? First off, Mark Martin. He's the second oldest driver in the race today (the oldest being Bill Elliot) and has never won a Daytona 500. With the poll position and a strong showing in the Gatorade Duel, he's got my bet. He's smart enough and experienced enough to stay out of trouble and skilled enough with a strong enough car that he can certainly do it.
The one everybody will of course be talking about is Dale Jr. He's got a lot of pressure on him but a decent car and he's a pretty good driver. Still, and I'm sure I'm risking life and limb by saying this, I don't think he's good enough to win today, front row or not.
A much better bet than Jr. in Jimmie Johnson. Jimmie's proven he's got what it takes to win, consistently has the best car on the track, and hands down has the best crew chief out there. Chad Knaus pulled one of his famous moves and picked Jimmie up a qualifying race win.
Tony Stewart on many days is the best, talent and skill wise, driver on the track. I'm not sure of his car, I think he's going to have some handeling issues, but he can do more with a bad car than anyone else. Watch him, he's got a good shot.
Jeff Gordon was caught up in a wreck during the qualifying race, so i have no idea what will happen, but he's so damn good he's always got a shot. Watch him at the first and see how he works his way to the front.
Some others to keep an eye on will be Mike Waltrip who got in the race the hard way, watching from the Hollywood Hotel, could finish well, but I don't think he's going to win. Of course there are also your usual cast of drivers to keep an eye on like Busch, Bowyer, Smith, Khane, and the like. Some of those you may want to watch for other reasons like.....
The Big One.
My money? Kasey Khane and Kyle Busch. They've both got a shot to win, they're starting close to each other and neither is the best driver on the track. They're far enough up in the line that if something happens it's not going to pretty.
Other people to watch are, as always, Juan Pablo Montoya. A good driver but not a great one, Montoya hasn't quite figured out the stock car thing. Again, he's starting far enough up that he could be trouble.
I put big money on Hamlin and Keselowski. One of them is not going to finish the race. They've had an on going feud for some time now and they are starting the biggest race of the year side by side with cars that aren't capable of winning the race. That's a recipe for trouble if ever I saw one.
Also on the feud note, you've got Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch starting close to each other, but I don't think it's worth watching.
Max Papis is starting near the back of the race and I think he's a wildcard. He's quite a driver but new to Nascar. He could do anything from break to wreck to win the race. I'm looking forward to seeing where he finishes.
On a side note, not because I'm encouraging gambling (I'm sure nobody would bet on a Nascar race), I checked the actual Vegas odds on some of the drivers and found some interesting things.
Mike Waltrip is literally a 100 to 1 shot today. I'd give him better than that, so if you're into that sort of thing, think about plopping a buck or two down on him. I'd certainly give him better odds than Keselowski who is a 50 to 1.
Carl Edwards is an 18 to 1 bet which I think is a little low. He's worth betting on, and I think he may have a shot, but in my opinion you should get a higher payout on him.
Gordon is a 12 to 1, Martin 10 to1, Harvick 9 to 1, Jr. 8 to 1, Kyle Busch 8 to 1, Tony Stewart 6 to 1, and Jimmie Johnson 5 to 1. Go with Gordon, Martin, Stewart, and Johnson. If you like semi long shots bet on Harvick or Busch. Don't even think about wasting your money on Jr. with those odds.
I've done it again. I will wake up to a shotgun tomorrow. If you're a Dale Jr. Fan (hey, I like him too, I just don't think he can win today) then my address is 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Washington, DC 20500.
As I mentioned before, we've already had some great racing leading up to today with the qualifying race, and I'm hoping to see it carried on throughout the season. Since I still haven't figured out the system for figuring out who starts where in the 500, I'm going to shamelessly steal from NASCAR.com. Here's the official starting line up for today's race:
So, who to watch? First off, Mark Martin. He's the second oldest driver in the race today (the oldest being Bill Elliot) and has never won a Daytona 500. With the poll position and a strong showing in the Gatorade Duel, he's got my bet. He's smart enough and experienced enough to stay out of trouble and skilled enough with a strong enough car that he can certainly do it.
The one everybody will of course be talking about is Dale Jr. He's got a lot of pressure on him but a decent car and he's a pretty good driver. Still, and I'm sure I'm risking life and limb by saying this, I don't think he's good enough to win today, front row or not.
A much better bet than Jr. in Jimmie Johnson. Jimmie's proven he's got what it takes to win, consistently has the best car on the track, and hands down has the best crew chief out there. Chad Knaus pulled one of his famous moves and picked Jimmie up a qualifying race win.
Tony Stewart on many days is the best, talent and skill wise, driver on the track. I'm not sure of his car, I think he's going to have some handeling issues, but he can do more with a bad car than anyone else. Watch him, he's got a good shot.
Jeff Gordon was caught up in a wreck during the qualifying race, so i have no idea what will happen, but he's so damn good he's always got a shot. Watch him at the first and see how he works his way to the front.
Some others to keep an eye on will be Mike Waltrip who got in the race the hard way, watching from the Hollywood Hotel, could finish well, but I don't think he's going to win. Of course there are also your usual cast of drivers to keep an eye on like Busch, Bowyer, Smith, Khane, and the like. Some of those you may want to watch for other reasons like.....
The Big One.
My money? Kasey Khane and Kyle Busch. They've both got a shot to win, they're starting close to each other and neither is the best driver on the track. They're far enough up in the line that if something happens it's not going to pretty.
Other people to watch are, as always, Juan Pablo Montoya. A good driver but not a great one, Montoya hasn't quite figured out the stock car thing. Again, he's starting far enough up that he could be trouble.
I put big money on Hamlin and Keselowski. One of them is not going to finish the race. They've had an on going feud for some time now and they are starting the biggest race of the year side by side with cars that aren't capable of winning the race. That's a recipe for trouble if ever I saw one.
Also on the feud note, you've got Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch starting close to each other, but I don't think it's worth watching.
Max Papis is starting near the back of the race and I think he's a wildcard. He's quite a driver but new to Nascar. He could do anything from break to wreck to win the race. I'm looking forward to seeing where he finishes.
On a side note, not because I'm encouraging gambling (I'm sure nobody would bet on a Nascar race), I checked the actual Vegas odds on some of the drivers and found some interesting things.
Mike Waltrip is literally a 100 to 1 shot today. I'd give him better than that, so if you're into that sort of thing, think about plopping a buck or two down on him. I'd certainly give him better odds than Keselowski who is a 50 to 1.
Carl Edwards is an 18 to 1 bet which I think is a little low. He's worth betting on, and I think he may have a shot, but in my opinion you should get a higher payout on him.
Gordon is a 12 to 1, Martin 10 to1, Harvick 9 to 1, Jr. 8 to 1, Kyle Busch 8 to 1, Tony Stewart 6 to 1, and Jimmie Johnson 5 to 1. Go with Gordon, Martin, Stewart, and Johnson. If you like semi long shots bet on Harvick or Busch. Don't even think about wasting your money on Jr. with those odds.
I've done it again. I will wake up to a shotgun tomorrow. If you're a Dale Jr. Fan (hey, I like him too, I just don't think he can win today) then my address is 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Washington, DC 20500.
Saturday, February 13, 2010
Biathlon: These women scare me.
I've always considered myself to be an above average rifleman. I was taught to shoot by a State Bureau of Investigation agent and a former Navy man and figure with any rifle I match most people I will meet at a shooting range. As I sit in my studio running an Elon basketball game I am watching the women's biathlon.
"Taylor, I'm watching the Olympics where the women ski around and shoot at stuff," I said down my mike to my play by play guy.
"The Biathlon, yes," he said.
"Yeah, that," I said. "These women are scary good."
If you're not familiar with the Biathlon, it entails cross country skiing at the least 7.5km, and at the most 15km and shooting targets that are 45 mm (1.8 in) in diameter from the prone position and 115 mm (4.5 in) while standing at a distance of 160 ft feet. The shot its self may not seem all that daunting until you consider they are doing this with a very increased heart rate from cross country skiing and adrenalin from competition. Also of course they are trying to beat the clock.
The Biathlon started as a means for Norwegian soldiers to train and morphed into a world wide sport as it caught on in other European countries like Russian, Sweden and Austria. If it gives you an idea of how awesome these people are at their job, think about this: some of the best militaries in the world used to do this as training. Back in the 50's and 60's they used to compete with .30-06 ammunition (that's very high powered). Nowadays they use .22's which are less powerful but very accurate.
I'm not much of a skier; actually I've had only one skiing experience and one snowboarding experience and to say they were less than graceful would be an insult to ungraceful beings everywhere. Picture a drunk basset hound on roller skates and that would be me. Today in the women's 7.5 K sprint, Anastazia Kusmina from Slovakia picket up a gold medal with a time of 19:55.6. She had one penalty, which means she missed only one of her targets.
If you want to give these athletes a look, here's the schedule.
If these folks don't impress you, try reading about this guy: Simo Haya.
Friday, February 12, 2010
There's the kick off, The Great One, Wiki fail
Holy cow, eh? I don't know who she was, but the woman who sang the Olympic Hymn has one heckuva set of pipes. I'm afraid I missed a large section of the opening ceremonies with my own version of the winter Olympics, four-wheeling my way in the snow to my paying job to make sure nobody stole our broadcast tower. I think I have seen the key points of the games and I must say, with the exception of the butchering of a great Leonard Cohen song, Canada's done a good job.
As I write this I just witnessed the torch lighting and, forgiving a slight technical malfunction, it went off well. I was going to include a list of all of the torch lighters, the most notable to me of course being The Great one, Wayne Gretzky. I couldn't remember who every one of them was however, and since I didn't plan ahead far enough to write them down as they were introduced, I went to that great repository of knowledge wikipedia.
Right. I apologise for the blurriness of it, but try to pretend you're on the same thing people who use wikipedia are on.
An interesting side note of the flame, if you weren't watching or missed it for what ever reason, there will actually be two cauldrons with Olympic Flames this year. Apparently the flame must be visible throughout the Olympic city and since the ceremonies were held indoors for the first time ever, after lighting the flame at the ceremony The Great One then carried the torch to a second, outdoor, location. As strange as this may seem, it's not unprecedented to have more than one cauldron. The Olympic Flame is sacred and lit at the very beginning of the torch relay by Eleven women, representing the Vestal Virgins, who perform a ceremony in which the torch is kindled by the light of the sun, by reflecting it rays with a mirror.
Several backup flames are always kept to relight the cauldron should it go out. This is an important backup plan, since the flame has gone out several times, notably in 1976 in Montreal when it was doused by a rain storm. A quick thinking official re lit the flame with his cigarette lighter and it was then re lit again with the backup flame. In 2004 the the flame was blown out by the wind, and in 2008 it was doused five times during the relay to escape Parisian protests against China playing host.
Now that that's all out of the way, I think I should take a moment to note the tragedy the has befallen these games. Luger Nodar Kunaritashvili was killed in a practice run shortly before the Olympics began. Kunaritashvili was a Georgian competitor, 21 years of age and considered young for the sport. The Vancouver track has been widely regarded as being the fastest, and as a result most dangerous, track in the world and no doubt there has already been talk (I don't know if it has been officially considered but I hope not) about redesigning the course.
This was one of those horrible accidents that, while it could have been prevented with a different track or perhaps by simply raising the retaining wall in certain turns, we must simply learn from, remember, and move on. As one of the Olympic spokesmen said, this an eventuality that befalls all sports. Sports, and really every human endeavor, tend to evolve at a faster rate than safety. When competing on the highest level of a sport, be it luge, skiing, or stock car racing, the competitors will always become faster and faster and they will outpace the safety standards because course designers are on a slower learning curve than the athletes.
There has been discussion that the course is too fast and should never have been used. I'm not a follower of luge but I think i can say that for any sport this would be a bad idea. In order humans to grow, be it in sports or in space exploration, or writing, or any activity, the bar must be set high. For something to grow it must challenge the best and the unfortunate fact is that is a dangerous endeavor.
My prayers go out to the family and friends of Nodar Kumaritashvili and to the other competitors in this years games. I hope that the remainder of these games will be safe and that the bar will stay high for all of the sports and competitors.
As I write this I just witnessed the torch lighting and, forgiving a slight technical malfunction, it went off well. I was going to include a list of all of the torch lighters, the most notable to me of course being The Great one, Wayne Gretzky. I couldn't remember who every one of them was however, and since I didn't plan ahead far enough to write them down as they were introduced, I went to that great repository of knowledge wikipedia.
Right. I apologise for the blurriness of it, but try to pretend you're on the same thing people who use wikipedia are on.
An interesting side note of the flame, if you weren't watching or missed it for what ever reason, there will actually be two cauldrons with Olympic Flames this year. Apparently the flame must be visible throughout the Olympic city and since the ceremonies were held indoors for the first time ever, after lighting the flame at the ceremony The Great One then carried the torch to a second, outdoor, location. As strange as this may seem, it's not unprecedented to have more than one cauldron. The Olympic Flame is sacred and lit at the very beginning of the torch relay by Eleven women, representing the Vestal Virgins, who perform a ceremony in which the torch is kindled by the light of the sun, by reflecting it rays with a mirror.
Several backup flames are always kept to relight the cauldron should it go out. This is an important backup plan, since the flame has gone out several times, notably in 1976 in Montreal when it was doused by a rain storm. A quick thinking official re lit the flame with his cigarette lighter and it was then re lit again with the backup flame. In 2004 the the flame was blown out by the wind, and in 2008 it was doused five times during the relay to escape Parisian protests against China playing host.
Now that that's all out of the way, I think I should take a moment to note the tragedy the has befallen these games. Luger Nodar Kunaritashvili was killed in a practice run shortly before the Olympics began. Kunaritashvili was a Georgian competitor, 21 years of age and considered young for the sport. The Vancouver track has been widely regarded as being the fastest, and as a result most dangerous, track in the world and no doubt there has already been talk (I don't know if it has been officially considered but I hope not) about redesigning the course.
This was one of those horrible accidents that, while it could have been prevented with a different track or perhaps by simply raising the retaining wall in certain turns, we must simply learn from, remember, and move on. As one of the Olympic spokesmen said, this an eventuality that befalls all sports. Sports, and really every human endeavor, tend to evolve at a faster rate than safety. When competing on the highest level of a sport, be it luge, skiing, or stock car racing, the competitors will always become faster and faster and they will outpace the safety standards because course designers are on a slower learning curve than the athletes.
There has been discussion that the course is too fast and should never have been used. I'm not a follower of luge but I think i can say that for any sport this would be a bad idea. In order humans to grow, be it in sports or in space exploration, or writing, or any activity, the bar must be set high. For something to grow it must challenge the best and the unfortunate fact is that is a dangerous endeavor.
My prayers go out to the family and friends of Nodar Kumaritashvili and to the other competitors in this years games. I hope that the remainder of these games will be safe and that the bar will stay high for all of the sports and competitors.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Let the "eh" jokes begin.
I love when the Olympics come to Canada. At no other time do I get to make immature juvenile Canadian jokes about cold weather, french people, mooses (meese?), bad beer, worse whiskey, and the word "eh." The games are actualy on at a time when I'm awake and it preempts standard prime time television (this is something that should be encouraged year round). Upon writing my first draft, I was going to insert a joke about the weather here and insinuate that the games should be moved to Washington D.C. (Or given the current weather forcast, Georgia) but now, only a few minutes away from the opening ceremonies, I see that the weather seems to be willing to cooporate.
On the weather note, I'd like to take this oportunity to state that at the first mention of global warming I will be flipping to channel the RFD network. In fact, I think I'll go ahead and start an over under bet as to how long into the opening ceremonies that mention will come. I'm going to say half an hour. I figure it will be about ten minutes before the first reference to going green.
Before you think I'm overplaying this, keep in mind opening ceremonies are not about kicking off they Olympics. They are about political posturing and showing off the best side of the host country while kicking the dirty laundry under the bed. Since the Olympics are a major media event, and more importantly a 21st century media event, dirty laundry tends not to say under the bed very long so you can bet the first controversies will come out by day three.
Of course I don't expect anything close to the fiasco that was Beijing, but maybe we will have some allegations of underage mooses or government censuring of beavers.
Of course, in the most recent two decades, putting on a happy face for the Olympics has included a happy mascot that nicely sums up the spirit of the games and the essence of the host country. Nothing, I think, does as great a job as America's Sam Eagle of 1984. Undoubtably we can count on Canada to pick something equaly fitting.
I'm sure Japan is proud.
I will continue my thoughts on the 2010 Winter Olympics after I do a little research and find out if there is any truth to the rumor that an extra Gold medal will be awarded to the country that Catches 'Em All.
On the weather note, I'd like to take this oportunity to state that at the first mention of global warming I will be flipping to channel the RFD network. In fact, I think I'll go ahead and start an over under bet as to how long into the opening ceremonies that mention will come. I'm going to say half an hour. I figure it will be about ten minutes before the first reference to going green.
Before you think I'm overplaying this, keep in mind opening ceremonies are not about kicking off they Olympics. They are about political posturing and showing off the best side of the host country while kicking the dirty laundry under the bed. Since the Olympics are a major media event, and more importantly a 21st century media event, dirty laundry tends not to say under the bed very long so you can bet the first controversies will come out by day three.
Of course I don't expect anything close to the fiasco that was Beijing, but maybe we will have some allegations of underage mooses or government censuring of beavers.
Of course, in the most recent two decades, putting on a happy face for the Olympics has included a happy mascot that nicely sums up the spirit of the games and the essence of the host country. Nothing, I think, does as great a job as America's Sam Eagle of 1984. Undoubtably we can count on Canada to pick something equaly fitting.
I'm sure Japan is proud.
I will continue my thoughts on the 2010 Winter Olympics after I do a little research and find out if there is any truth to the rumor that an extra Gold medal will be awarded to the country that Catches 'Em All.
What Super Bowl? Gatorade Duel, and, um, well,.....
Only my third entry and I've already missed the biggest sporting event of the year. I am of course referring to The Super Bowl. It's worth noting that my predictions came true: I wanted the Colts, but both teams played just like they had the two weeks leading up to the big game and New Orleans came out with the win. On the whole, it was a well played game, and an asonishingly clean game. Early on I was complaining about the lack of holding and other penalties called, but by the end, I decided it was well officiated, both teams simply played a very clean game. I think that's about all that needs to be said about it now that we are nearly a week afterwards and two more major sporting events coming up.
Two sporting events you ask? Yes, two. The Daytona 500 of course is rolling around this Sunday; I finished watching the qualifying races only a few hours ago, and the 2010 Winter Olympics get underway tomorrow. I'll start with Daytona.
The Gatorade Duel, the current encarnation of what I grew up calling the Twin 125's, took place this afternoon with a little exitement, some good beating and banging, and the average amount of confusion as I tried to figure out who was in and who wasn't.
At this point, I still haven't figured out who will start where, but this much is certain: Martin and Earnhardt have the front row. In the qualifiers, Martin showed that he's been doing this longer than anybody as he ran long enough to figure out his car, get his sponsor some air time, and give it a good shot at winning. When he was shuffled back near the end of his race, he simply slid down to the apron and quit. A wise decision when you already have the front row and people are going three wide with nothing to lose. Also certain is that Jimmy Johnson still has the best crew chief on the planet. Chad Knaus gambled and Jimmy stayed out at the end when all but one other driver pitted for tires. The result? Jimmy won one of the tightest qualifying races in history.
Tony Stewart finished second in a car that may or may not have been handeling well, proving again that he can do more with less than most anyone on the track. Juan Pablo finished third in the same race with a happy surprise. It took him a while, but apparently he has finally learned how to bump draft without causing "The Big One."
Finally, Michael Waltrip is in the race somewhere because Scott Speed finished 14th. Mike got in the hard way after wrecking in his own race and having to hope and pray for the correct finishing positions of several drivers in the secodn race.
I'll have a more in depth look at the starting grid for the 500 on Saturday with my own picks for drivers to watch. At this point, I've decided to break this entry into two parts, so if you're interested in the Olympics, please, continue to part two. If you're not, then feel free to go play with the ducks: Duck.
Two sporting events you ask? Yes, two. The Daytona 500 of course is rolling around this Sunday; I finished watching the qualifying races only a few hours ago, and the 2010 Winter Olympics get underway tomorrow. I'll start with Daytona.
The Gatorade Duel, the current encarnation of what I grew up calling the Twin 125's, took place this afternoon with a little exitement, some good beating and banging, and the average amount of confusion as I tried to figure out who was in and who wasn't.
At this point, I still haven't figured out who will start where, but this much is certain: Martin and Earnhardt have the front row. In the qualifiers, Martin showed that he's been doing this longer than anybody as he ran long enough to figure out his car, get his sponsor some air time, and give it a good shot at winning. When he was shuffled back near the end of his race, he simply slid down to the apron and quit. A wise decision when you already have the front row and people are going three wide with nothing to lose. Also certain is that Jimmy Johnson still has the best crew chief on the planet. Chad Knaus gambled and Jimmy stayed out at the end when all but one other driver pitted for tires. The result? Jimmy won one of the tightest qualifying races in history.
Tony Stewart finished second in a car that may or may not have been handeling well, proving again that he can do more with less than most anyone on the track. Juan Pablo finished third in the same race with a happy surprise. It took him a while, but apparently he has finally learned how to bump draft without causing "The Big One."
Finally, Michael Waltrip is in the race somewhere because Scott Speed finished 14th. Mike got in the hard way after wrecking in his own race and having to hope and pray for the correct finishing positions of several drivers in the secodn race.
I'll have a more in depth look at the starting grid for the 500 on Saturday with my own picks for drivers to watch. At this point, I've decided to break this entry into two parts, so if you're interested in the Olympics, please, continue to part two. If you're not, then feel free to go play with the ducks: Duck.
Sunday, January 31, 2010
I promised in my last post that I had an idea spurred by an astonishingly bad record amongst the "expert" picks when it comes to predicting game outcomes. About forty years ago one intrepid football fan took it upon himself to track expert picks and success rate in college and NFL football games. His conclusions were that the experts had a success rate of.476. Not bad for a baseball player, but not exactly Pro Bowl material for sports predicting. Think about it, a less than .500 record means they could have just flipped a coin to determine the outcomes and come out better. So, where does this lead me? I have a couple of experiments I want to try.
I came up with this plan last night, near the end of spending thirty five out of forty eight hours in a radio station during a snow snow with about three hours of sleep, and today I have already discovered some crucial flaws, but we're going to try it anyway and keep it as an on going project.
Here's the plan as I wrote it last night:
Since we are nearing NCAA tourny time, my plan is to try something a little different with my bracket picks this year. I'm not going to pick them. Instead, I'm going to let George Washington pick them. (Embarassing realization: I just checked to make sure it was indeed George Washington on the quarter.) (Before you laugh at me, how many of you thought I was referring to the dollar bill when I said George Washington?) Here's my plan. This year I'm going to to flip a coin to determine my choices. Heads the higher seed wins, Tales the lower seed. Now admittedly I haven't thought this completely through, so I will probably tweak my methodology slightly before the tourny starts. I'm going to spend the next month working out exactly the best way to do this. I think I will have two controls. One will be my own bracket with my own actual picks, the other will be the "expert pick. I will determine the expert at a later date, but rest assured, I'm not going to cheat. I'll pick somebody who "really knows" what he's doing. Next I will have a bracket determined with a simple coin toss. Heads the higher seed wins, tales the lower seed. My final bracket I will pick the first round and let a coin determine every ensuing round. In the time running up to the tourny, I'm going to be going back to past brackets at trying the quarter toss (or how 'bout the GW toss?) and see how it stacks up to the actual results. This will serve a couple of purposes: one, I think it will give me something to do while I'm not sleeping at 4:00 in the morning, two it will give us some preleminary data, and three, it will tell me ahead of time which bracket I should enter in the work pool this year. As soon as I figure out how to insert pictures into this blog I will post my first set of findings.
That was the plan as written at 4:00 in the morning after being up for nearly two consecutive days. Anyone spot the flaw?
If you said George Washington doesn't know anything about football, then you're right. If you said that stat I quoted up there (.476) pertained to football predictions, you are right again. I went back and did my first test run with the 2009 NCAA Tournament, and apparently George Washington is an Alabama State fan. GW picked them upsetting first seed Louisville, going on to defeat Ohio State, Arizona, and finally losing to West Virgina in the fourth round. Ok, flaw.
My second bracket experiment faired a little better. For the first round I gave the higher seeds a pass and then proceeded with the coin flip all the way to the end. This prevented any lunacy like Alabama State going to the elite eight, but still gave me some rather screwy results. Generally I'm a big fan of screwy results, but in this case, we're looking for the perfect bracket (or at least a better than .500 bracket), not to screw with the data. Clearly I needed a new tactic.
Once again, while at work, I revised my methodology and ran a few more brackets to see how it turned out. At this point I'm up to six brackets, six different methods of picking them. Each bracket seems to become a little more viable than the last, so I think I'm working towards something very cool. Coming up next I'll walk you through my method and show you the results of my insanity.
-C
I came up with this plan last night, near the end of spending thirty five out of forty eight hours in a radio station during a snow snow with about three hours of sleep, and today I have already discovered some crucial flaws, but we're going to try it anyway and keep it as an on going project.
Here's the plan as I wrote it last night:
Since we are nearing NCAA tourny time, my plan is to try something a little different with my bracket picks this year. I'm not going to pick them. Instead, I'm going to let George Washington pick them. (Embarassing realization: I just checked to make sure it was indeed George Washington on the quarter.) (Before you laugh at me, how many of you thought I was referring to the dollar bill when I said George Washington?) Here's my plan. This year I'm going to to flip a coin to determine my choices. Heads the higher seed wins, Tales the lower seed. Now admittedly I haven't thought this completely through, so I will probably tweak my methodology slightly before the tourny starts. I'm going to spend the next month working out exactly the best way to do this. I think I will have two controls. One will be my own bracket with my own actual picks, the other will be the "expert pick. I will determine the expert at a later date, but rest assured, I'm not going to cheat. I'll pick somebody who "really knows" what he's doing. Next I will have a bracket determined with a simple coin toss. Heads the higher seed wins, tales the lower seed. My final bracket I will pick the first round and let a coin determine every ensuing round. In the time running up to the tourny, I'm going to be going back to past brackets at trying the quarter toss (or how 'bout the GW toss?) and see how it stacks up to the actual results. This will serve a couple of purposes: one, I think it will give me something to do while I'm not sleeping at 4:00 in the morning, two it will give us some preleminary data, and three, it will tell me ahead of time which bracket I should enter in the work pool this year. As soon as I figure out how to insert pictures into this blog I will post my first set of findings.
That was the plan as written at 4:00 in the morning after being up for nearly two consecutive days. Anyone spot the flaw?
If you said George Washington doesn't know anything about football, then you're right. If you said that stat I quoted up there (.476) pertained to football predictions, you are right again. I went back and did my first test run with the 2009 NCAA Tournament, and apparently George Washington is an Alabama State fan. GW picked them upsetting first seed Louisville, going on to defeat Ohio State, Arizona, and finally losing to West Virgina in the fourth round. Ok, flaw.
My second bracket experiment faired a little better. For the first round I gave the higher seeds a pass and then proceeded with the coin flip all the way to the end. This prevented any lunacy like Alabama State going to the elite eight, but still gave me some rather screwy results. Generally I'm a big fan of screwy results, but in this case, we're looking for the perfect bracket (or at least a better than .500 bracket), not to screw with the data. Clearly I needed a new tactic.
Once again, while at work, I revised my methodology and ran a few more brackets to see how it turned out. At this point I'm up to six brackets, six different methods of picking them. Each bracket seems to become a little more viable than the last, so I think I'm working towards something very cool. Coming up next I'll walk you through my method and show you the results of my insanity.
-C
Why you ask? Well, because....er.....well.....
The idea for this blog came to me over the course of about a week. I picked up Julia and Julie (or was it Julie and Julia?) through Netflix last week and decided for certain something I had always suspected (and declared loudly): Any idiot can write a blog. The question became, what to blog about? With a background in english lit, rock and roll, country music, radio, and politics, the possibilities seemed endless, and yet, none of those really seemed to jump out at me.
Politics of course is out, it's too divisive, I'm too opinionated, and quite frankly just because I'm good at them doesn't mean i actually like them. I'm a bit too anarchic for that.
Country music is out because if I call Taylor Swift a no talent teeny bopper one more time I suspect I'll have a mob of angry middle school girls attempting to strangle me with a rope made of bras with pictures of the Jonas Brothers on them.
Rock and roll seemed a likely option for a while, but really, how long can I proclaim once again that Clapton is God, John, Paul, George, and Ringo are the greatest no matter what band you put them in, and for a third example I'm already running into another problem with a rock and roll blog: way, way, way too much to say and every time I start I feel like I've something out. Like for instance I feel like I can't continue without rattling off a few more geniuses like Dylan, Orbison, Holly, Waits, Russell, and I'm going to cut myself off now.
Literature of course holds a special place in my heart, but the only people who read lit blogs are other English majors and we just like to talk to hear ourselves talk and try and name the most obscure books possible to win the on going "I'm better read than you" contest. Off Magazine Street. If you don't know it then I win.
So with those out, what to write about? the answer came to me in a article about professons that are statisticaly pretty much full of it.
Aside from getting a good laugh out of it, the last entry caught my attention. To save you the trouble of reading it, it's about how laughably inaccurate sports "experts" are at predicting the outcomes of games. It's basketball season, and just around the corner is March Madness and the ever favorite bracket picking. Last year I didn't do too bad, but that article got me thinking and I decided to try a little experiment. I'll tell you a little more about that in a minute.
Anyway, I like sports. I'm terrible at most of them. I can't hit, I'm only passably average at soccer, my golf game is in the 90's (the decade, not the score), and the only sport I actually enjoy playing is football. I'm 5'8 130 pounds. You do the math on that. All that said, I enjoy watching them. In football season I'm never bored on Sunday afternoon, in baseball season I'm forever disappointed (I'm a Nationals fan), and in basketball season I get to ride a lovely ACC rollercoaster of joy (N.C. Sate 88, Duke 74), disgust (Carolina 77, State 63), and total bewilderment (hasn't happened yet, but I'll have something for you by the end of the season).
All of that said, I'm not statistician, I couldn't tell you the starting line up of way too many of the teams out there, and I don't immediately flip the TV to ESPN when I turn it on. I go to TCM or the Scifi (SyFy?) channel. My older brother is the sports genius, and I leave all of those things to him. I suspect that the vast majority of people in this fine sports loving country are very similar to myself, and this blog is for you. It's not sports for women, or for idiots, or for any number of other high selling book titles out there, but rather one by a casual fan that can tell you exactly what happened on the last play, but maybe not all about the third inning of the '76 World Series.
My intention is to use this platform to discuss all manner of sports related items, as well as non sports things. Something like Hunter S. Thompson's column "Hey Rube" with less drugs. I don't follow rules very well, so expect me to stray from the topic unexpectedly with little or no apology. It's what i do.
-C
Supposedly if I include this link this site will link to my blog. We shall see.....
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Politics of course is out, it's too divisive, I'm too opinionated, and quite frankly just because I'm good at them doesn't mean i actually like them. I'm a bit too anarchic for that.
Country music is out because if I call Taylor Swift a no talent teeny bopper one more time I suspect I'll have a mob of angry middle school girls attempting to strangle me with a rope made of bras with pictures of the Jonas Brothers on them.
Rock and roll seemed a likely option for a while, but really, how long can I proclaim once again that Clapton is God, John, Paul, George, and Ringo are the greatest no matter what band you put them in, and for a third example I'm already running into another problem with a rock and roll blog: way, way, way too much to say and every time I start I feel like I've something out. Like for instance I feel like I can't continue without rattling off a few more geniuses like Dylan, Orbison, Holly, Waits, Russell, and I'm going to cut myself off now.
Literature of course holds a special place in my heart, but the only people who read lit blogs are other English majors and we just like to talk to hear ourselves talk and try and name the most obscure books possible to win the on going "I'm better read than you" contest. Off Magazine Street. If you don't know it then I win.
So with those out, what to write about? the answer came to me in a article about professons that are statisticaly pretty much full of it.
Aside from getting a good laugh out of it, the last entry caught my attention. To save you the trouble of reading it, it's about how laughably inaccurate sports "experts" are at predicting the outcomes of games. It's basketball season, and just around the corner is March Madness and the ever favorite bracket picking. Last year I didn't do too bad, but that article got me thinking and I decided to try a little experiment. I'll tell you a little more about that in a minute.
Anyway, I like sports. I'm terrible at most of them. I can't hit, I'm only passably average at soccer, my golf game is in the 90's (the decade, not the score), and the only sport I actually enjoy playing is football. I'm 5'8 130 pounds. You do the math on that. All that said, I enjoy watching them. In football season I'm never bored on Sunday afternoon, in baseball season I'm forever disappointed (I'm a Nationals fan), and in basketball season I get to ride a lovely ACC rollercoaster of joy (N.C. Sate 88, Duke 74), disgust (Carolina 77, State 63), and total bewilderment (hasn't happened yet, but I'll have something for you by the end of the season).
All of that said, I'm not statistician, I couldn't tell you the starting line up of way too many of the teams out there, and I don't immediately flip the TV to ESPN when I turn it on. I go to TCM or the Scifi (SyFy?) channel. My older brother is the sports genius, and I leave all of those things to him. I suspect that the vast majority of people in this fine sports loving country are very similar to myself, and this blog is for you. It's not sports for women, or for idiots, or for any number of other high selling book titles out there, but rather one by a casual fan that can tell you exactly what happened on the last play, but maybe not all about the third inning of the '76 World Series.
My intention is to use this platform to discuss all manner of sports related items, as well as non sports things. Something like Hunter S. Thompson's column "Hey Rube" with less drugs. I don't follow rules very well, so expect me to stray from the topic unexpectedly with little or no apology. It's what i do.
-C
Supposedly if I include this link this site will link to my blog. We shall see.....
Total Blog Directory
Office Supply Blog
International Web Directory
YJSBMNW7G2DC
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