Here we are, 7:26am, Sunday morning, February 14, 2010. Daytona 500 day. Many of us have waited months for this. Some of us are from Washington and are stupid. Most of us though are excited today because Nascar has made some changes to the cars and promises a little better racing; something more akin to the way it was when I was growing up. It should be a good race, but I never expect to see anything like the '79 finish where Donnie Allison and Cale Yarborough ended up in a fight in the infield while Richard Petty came in for the win. If you haven't seen it, check this out: The Fight.
As I mentioned before, we've already had some great racing leading up to today with the qualifying race, and I'm hoping to see it carried on throughout the season. Since I still haven't figured out the system for figuring out who starts where in the 500, I'm going to shamelessly steal from NASCAR.com. Here's the official starting line up for today's race:
So, who to watch? First off, Mark Martin. He's the second oldest driver in the race today (the oldest being Bill Elliot) and has never won a Daytona 500. With the poll position and a strong showing in the Gatorade Duel, he's got my bet. He's smart enough and experienced enough to stay out of trouble and skilled enough with a strong enough car that he can certainly do it.
The one everybody will of course be talking about is Dale Jr. He's got a lot of pressure on him but a decent car and he's a pretty good driver. Still, and I'm sure I'm risking life and limb by saying this, I don't think he's good enough to win today, front row or not.
A much better bet than Jr. in Jimmie Johnson. Jimmie's proven he's got what it takes to win, consistently has the best car on the track, and hands down has the best crew chief out there. Chad Knaus pulled one of his famous moves and picked Jimmie up a qualifying race win.
Tony Stewart on many days is the best, talent and skill wise, driver on the track. I'm not sure of his car, I think he's going to have some handeling issues, but he can do more with a bad car than anyone else. Watch him, he's got a good shot.
Jeff Gordon was caught up in a wreck during the qualifying race, so i have no idea what will happen, but he's so damn good he's always got a shot. Watch him at the first and see how he works his way to the front.
Some others to keep an eye on will be Mike Waltrip who got in the race the hard way, watching from the Hollywood Hotel, could finish well, but I don't think he's going to win. Of course there are also your usual cast of drivers to keep an eye on like Busch, Bowyer, Smith, Khane, and the like. Some of those you may want to watch for other reasons like.....
The Big One.
My money? Kasey Khane and Kyle Busch. They've both got a shot to win, they're starting close to each other and neither is the best driver on the track. They're far enough up in the line that if something happens it's not going to pretty.
Other people to watch are, as always, Juan Pablo Montoya. A good driver but not a great one, Montoya hasn't quite figured out the stock car thing. Again, he's starting far enough up that he could be trouble.
I put big money on Hamlin and Keselowski. One of them is not going to finish the race. They've had an on going feud for some time now and they are starting the biggest race of the year side by side with cars that aren't capable of winning the race. That's a recipe for trouble if ever I saw one.
Also on the feud note, you've got Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch starting close to each other, but I don't think it's worth watching.
Max Papis is starting near the back of the race and I think he's a wildcard. He's quite a driver but new to Nascar. He could do anything from break to wreck to win the race. I'm looking forward to seeing where he finishes.
On a side note, not because I'm encouraging gambling (I'm sure nobody would bet on a Nascar race), I checked the actual Vegas odds on some of the drivers and found some interesting things.
Mike Waltrip is literally a 100 to 1 shot today. I'd give him better than that, so if you're into that sort of thing, think about plopping a buck or two down on him. I'd certainly give him better odds than Keselowski who is a 50 to 1.
Carl Edwards is an 18 to 1 bet which I think is a little low. He's worth betting on, and I think he may have a shot, but in my opinion you should get a higher payout on him.
Gordon is a 12 to 1, Martin 10 to1, Harvick 9 to 1, Jr. 8 to 1, Kyle Busch 8 to 1, Tony Stewart 6 to 1, and Jimmie Johnson 5 to 1. Go with Gordon, Martin, Stewart, and Johnson. If you like semi long shots bet on Harvick or Busch. Don't even think about wasting your money on Jr. with those odds.
I've done it again. I will wake up to a shotgun tomorrow. If you're a Dale Jr. Fan (hey, I like him too, I just don't think he can win today) then my address is 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Washington, DC 20500.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment